Saturday, May 27, 2017

Prediction Checks (2016)

So, a couple weeks ago I averaged the data change over the last 5 years, and tried to use that to predict rankings this year. I was sometimes successful.
Let's see them.


My prediction
Actual 2016 Top 20
1.
Emma, #1, no change
Emma, #1, no change
2.
Olivia, #2, no change
Olivia, #2, no change
3.
Sophia, #3, no change
Ava, #3, +1
4.
Ava, #4, no change
Sophia, #4, -1
5.
Mia, #5, +1
Isabella, #5, no change
6.
Isabella, #6, -1
Mia, #6, no change
7.
Charlotte, #7, +2
Charlotte, #7, +2
8.
Abigail, #8, -1
Abigail, #8, -1
9.
Harper, #9, +1
Emily, #9, -1
10.
Emily, #10, -2
Harper, #10, no change
11.
Amelia, #11, +1
Amelia, #11, +1
12.
Sofia, #12, +2
Evelyn, #12, +3
13.
Evelyn, #13, +2
Elizabeth, #13, no change
14.
Avery, #14, +2
Sofia, #14, no change
15.
Elizabeth, #15, -2
Madison, #15, -4
16.
Madison, #16, -5
Avery, #16, no change
17.
Scarlett, #17, +5
Ella, #17, +1
18.
Victoria, #18, +2
Scarlett, #18, +4
19.
Aubrey, #19, +2
Grace, #19, no change
20.
Grace, #20, -1
Chloe, #20, -3


My prediction
Actual 2016 Top 20
1.
Noah, #1, no change
Noah, #1, no change
2.
Liam, #2, no change
Liam, #2, no change
3.
Mason, #3, no change
William, #3, +2
4.
William, #4, +1
Mason, #4, -1
5.
James, #5, +2
James, #5, +2
6.
Jacob, #6, -2
Benjamin, #6, +4
7.
Ethan, #7, -1
Jacob, #7, -3
8.
Alexander, #8, no change
Michael, #8, +1
9.
Benjamin, #9, +1
Elijah, #9, +2
10.
Michael, #10, -1
Ethan, #10, -4
11.
Elijah, #11, no change
Alexander, #11, -3
12.
Aiden, #12, +1
Oliver, #12, +7
13.
Oliver, #13, +6
Daniel, #13, -1
14.
Daniel, #14, -2
Lucas, #14, +2
15.
Logan, #15, -1
Matthew, #15, no change
16.
Lucas, #16, no change
Aiden, #16, -3
17.
Matthew, #17, -2
Jackson, #17, no change
18.
Jackson, #18, -1
Logan, #18, -4
19.
Carter, #19, +5
David, #19, -1
20.
David, #20, -2
Joseph, #20, +1

So, not terrible. I thought Chloe & Ella would fall further, and that Aubrey & Victoria would gain instead of falling.
Likewise, for boys, I predicted Carter jumping ahead of Joseph, but alas, it did not.

Now my predictions for the ins & outs of the Top 100:

Predicted:
Actual:
(in)
Elena
Adeline
Eliana
Elena
Hadley
Eliana
Kinsley
Kinsley
Luna
Luna
Willow
Willow


Roman
Bryson

Greyson

Leonardo

Roman
(out)
Alexis
Alexis
Alyssa
Alyssa
Ashley
Ashley
Brianna
Annabelle
Gianna
Isabelle
Khloe
Khloe


Nathaniel
Blake

Kayden

Nathaniel

Ryder

Hey, I didn't do too bad, especially for girls! :D


I made a lot of Top 1000 predictions, and the results were more mixed (and quite a bit too involved to list here concisely): 74 of the 139 names I predicted to shift in or out did, which on its own is about 50%--not bad. However, of the 180 names that actually moved in/out, I only predicted 74 of them (40%).
My methods worked best with names that moved steadily (whether quickly or slowly, as long as the rate stayed consistent), and were surrounded by names that also moved steadily. Names that jumped or tanked suddenly (thanks mostly to pop culture) are ones that messed me up. :)

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

% Changes, 2016

Ranking jumps are interesting, but what they really show is how names change relative to each other. If you want to see how much a name's popularity is changing on its own, you'll have to use a different metric.

Here are the names that gained the most actual usage (as measured in % of boys/girls born):

Boys:
  1. Mateo, +0.08% (0.25% ---> 0.32%)
  2. Oliver, +0.07% (0.57% ---> 0.65%)
  3. Bryson, +0.06% (0.15% ---> 0.22%)
  4. Lincoln, +0.06% (0.29% ---> 0.35%)
  5. Benjamin, +0.05% (0.67% ---> 0.73%)
  6. Grayson, +0.04% (0.39% ---> 0.43%)
  7. Owen, +0.04% (0.47% ---> 0.51%)
  8. Theodore, +0.04% (0.2% ---> 0.24%)
  9. Sebastian, +0.04% (0.47% ---> 0.51%)
  10. Greyson, +0.04% (0.18% ---> 0.21%)
  11. Leo, +0.04% (0.23% ---> 0.26%)
  12. Maverick, +0.04% (0.11% ---> 0.15%)
  13. Lucas, +0.03% (0.6% ---> 0.64%)
  14. Ezekiel, +0.03% (0.14% ---> 0.17%)
  15. Ezra, +0.03% (0.21% ---> 0.24%)
  16. Leonardo, +0.03% (0.19% ---> 0.21%)
  17. Santiago, +0.03% (0.16% ---> 0.18%)
  18. Everett, +0.02% (0.15% ---> 0.17%)
  19. Gael, +0.02% (0.09% ---> 0.11%)
  20. Conor, +0.02% (0.03% ---> 0.05%)

So Theodore, for instance, went from being 1 in every 500 boys born to about 1 in every 400. So while the number of baby Theodores went up from 2015 to 2016, you're not actually all that more likely to meet one. :)

Girls:
  1. Charlotte, +0.09% (0.59% ---> 0.68%)
  2. Adeline, +0.09% (0.12% ---> 0.21%)
  3. Riley, +0.08% (0.29% ---> 0.37%)
  4. Amelia, +0.05% (0.51% ---> 0.56%)
  5. Adaline, +0.05% (0.05% ---> 0.1%)
  6. Luna, +0.05% (0.14% ---> 0.19%)
  7. Emilia, +0.04% (0.11% ---> 0.16%)
  8. Camila, +0.04% (0.27% ---> 0.31%)
  9. Evelyn, +0.04% (0.48% ---> 0.52%)
  10. Nova, +0.04% (0.08% ---> 0.12%)
  11. Eleanor, +0.04% (0.23% ---> 0.27%)
  12. Scarlett, +0.03% (0.37% ---> 0.4%)
  13. Teagan, +0.03% (0.07% ---> 0.11%)
  14. Kinsley, +0.03% (0.14% ---> 0.17%)
  15. Quinn, +0.03% (0.16% ---> 0.19%)
  16. Aria, +0.03% (0.33% ---> 0.36%)
  17. Everly, +0.03% (0.12% ---> 0.15%)
  18. Harper, +0.03% (0.53% ---> 0.56%)
  19. Penelope, +0.03% (0.31% ---> 0.33%)
  20. Remi, +0.02% (0.03% ---> 0.06%)
There are the multiple Adaline/Adelines! Yep, they're getting pretty popular! Amelia & Emilia, Charlotte & Scarlett, Evelyn & Everly--there are definitely some sounds we're all drawn to right now. 

Pure change in % is going to favor names that were more popular to begin with, but what about names that were fairly uncommon in 2015? For that, we can check the popularity ratios. That will tell us how much more likely you are to meet a baby with that name in 2016 than in 2015. 

Boys:
  1. Kylo (6.86x)
  2. Kion (5.55x)
  3. Yoandri (4.26x)
  4. Zabdiel (3.39x)
  5. Kyon (3.22x)
  6. Saint (3.14x)
  7. Aadvik (2.99x)
  8. Murad (2.82x)
  9. Finnick (2.68x)
  10. Egypt (2.68x)
  11. Aceson (2.57x)
  12. Bowie (2.47x)
  13. Yuvaan (2.47x)
  14. Bellamy (2.46x)
  15. Keylor (2.45x)
  16. Ayaansh (2.33x)
  17. Khaza (2.28x)
  18. Adonis (2.27x)
  19. Dietrich (2.09x)
  20. Mars (2.09x)

Girls:
  1. Yurani (97.11x) [estimated; didn't appear in 2015]
  2. Kehlani (6.72x)
  3. Yamila (5.47x)
  4. Lyanna (3.51x)
  5. Aavya (3.36x)
  6. Arlet (3.28x)
  7. Ivanka (3.02x)
  8. Oaklyn (2.95x)
  9. Royalty (2.69x)
  10. Harlyn (2.68x)
  11. Teigen (2.54x)
  12. Elowen (2.38x)
  13. Annora (2.25x)
  14. Arleth (2.22x)
  15. Maisyn (2.14x)
  16. Adaline (2.09x)
  17. Blayke (2.05x)
  18. Zaya (2.05x)
  19. Khari (2.04x)
  20. Rae (2.04x)
Despite large gains, most of these are still pretty uncommon--Annora was given to 85 girls. Here are the names you're more likely to start hearing everyday, from the Top 500:

Boys:
  1. Adonis (2.27x)
  2. Zayn (1.85x)
  3. Conor (1.76x)
  4. Arlo (1.71x)
  5. Bodhi (1.59x)
  6. Wade (1.44x)
  7. Killian (1.43x)
  8. Ace (1.42x)
  9. Bryson (1.42x)
  10. Legend (1.41x)

Girls:
  1. Adaline (2.09x)
  2. Aviana (1.97x)
  3. Avianna (1.9x)
  4. Remi (1.75x)
  5. Ariah (1.73x)
  6. Adeline (1.73x)
  7. Thea (1.64x)
  8. Amara (1.59x)
  9. Saylor (1.53x)
  10. Remington (1.52x)
Adeline, I thought I told you to slow down! :p Interesting how 6 of the 10 girls' names (not to mention 3 of the boys') are A-names. Happy to see Arlo, Killian, Thea, & Amara still going strong.